The housing market is shifting, and there’s a lot to unpack. This fall has brought a whirlwind of activity, surprises, and some uncertainty. Let’s dive into what’s happening and what it means for buyers and sellers.
Mortgage Rates: The Rollercoaster Ride
This fall kicked off with a pleasant surprise: mortgage rates dropped at the end of summer, sparking a flurry of activity. More buyers jumped into the market, leading to an uptick in closed sales in October. But just as quickly as rates fell, they started climbing again in mid-September. What does this mean? Likely, some buyers will hit pause as we wrap up the year.
Dr. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, summed it up perfectly:
“Lower rates brought more buyers into the market this fall, but it was a short window. Rates have been rising and likely will be volatile through the end of the year. Some buyers and sellers may decide to wait until 2025 when there should be more rate stability.”
Pending Sales: Up Year Over Year
Despite the rate swings, the market hasn’t been stagnant. Across the DC Metro area, the number of new pending contracts in October rose 14.7% compared to last year.
Inventory: A Breath of Fresh Air for Buyers
For the past nine months, inventory has been steadily increasing. In the Washington D.C. metro area specifically, listings surged by 15.5% year-over-year. This rise in supply has provided some much-needed breathing room for buyers, though the market is still competitive in prime neighborhoods.
Home Prices: Holding Strong
Here’s the kicker: while we’d typically expect home prices to dip in the fall, this year is breaking the mold. Strong buyer demand has kept upward pressure on price. The median price in our area reached $600,000, a 5.6% year-over-year increase, and even edged up 0.2% from September.
Despite rising prices, they’re still below the record highs seen this summer.
October’s Sales Surge
One of the biggest surprises this fall came in October: 4,207 homes sold across the Washington D.C. metro area, a sharp increase both from September and the same time last year. This boost was fueled by a combination of falling rates (albeit briefly) and the rise in inventory.
What’s Next? The Market Outlook
As we inch toward the end of the year, the market faces a mix of opportunities and uncertainties:
Volatile mortgage rates: These could lead some buyers and sellers to wait for more stability in 2025.
Pent-up demand: Many buyers are eager to act, but affordability remains a challenge, especially for first-time buyers.
Price pressure: If buyer activity stays strong, we might not see the usual seasonal price dip.
In a nutshell, the market’s direction will hinge on whether buyers feel ready to make their move or decide to wait and see what the spring brings.
Takeaway for Buyers and Sellers
Whether you’re buying or selling, this fall has shown that timing and strategy matter more than ever. Here’s how to navigate:
Buyers: Keep an eye on rate changes and inventory. The market is still competitive, but more options are emerging.
Sellers: If you’re considering listing, now might be a good time to capitalize on strong prices. The spring market in our area often starts as early as January, so now is the time to start planning for a successful home sale.
The housing market is always evolving, and staying informed is your best tool. As we head into 2025, one thing is clear: whether it’s the right time to make a move depends on your goals and how you adapt to the shifting landscape.
Let’s keep the conversation going—your dream home (or buyer) might be just around the corner!
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